Coronavirus and the Great Game

Coronavirus and the Great Game

Independence of India, 15/08/1947

US Capture of Japanese Island of Iwo Jima, 23/02/1945

Nuclear bombing of Nagasaki, 9/08/1945

Final Lowering of the Soviet Flag, 26/12/1991

nCoV-19

The above set of images all reference landmark moments in world history, with the Coronavirus being the latest one to inevitably go down in history, seeing the scope of the devastation it has caused. However, what is common among these images other than them being historical?

Indian Independence—Signifies the loss of Britain’s most important colony, marking the beginning of the sunset of the British Empire.

Taking of Iwo Jima—One of many landmark events revolving around the USA in World War II, which finally led to it becoming the global superpower we know today.

Nuclear Bombing of Nagasaki—One of the two most devastating man-made disasters in history, causing the Japanese Empire to finally capitulate, marking the end of one of the largest and most powerful Asiatic empires.

Disintegration of the USSR—The superpower rivalling the US in the Cold War finally vanished from existence after a series of revolts and popular expression of dissent throughout Eastern Europe and the Baltics, marking the end of the Cold War and the beginning of US hegemony.

A pattern begins to emerge. Global history has experienced a perennial cycle of tussles between global powers, and the mantle of superpower passes from one empire to another. However, it is always that sudden, severe (and often violent) events mark these transitions, as seen above. The two World Wars finally unseated the UK, the largest Empire in the world for over two centuries, and gave way to the US and USSR, the largest nuclear-armed states, who competed for dominance until 1991, when again, in a sudden turn of events, triggered by the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, popular dissent caused the USSR to disintegrate entirely. If we were to go even further back in history—the mighty Roman Empire finally became history following a civil war and its partition into two; the Ottoman Empire, which once dominated the entire Middle East and North Africa, was reduced to ashes following the First World War, and then ceased to exist after popular revolts against the regime.

A similar disruptive phenomenon is occurring today. The Coronavirus Pandemic. It seems inevitable that this will be a turning point in the 21^st Century’s Great Power Struggle, from which the US will emerge declining faster than ever, and China rising phenomenally (closely tailed by India, one may presume).

The Tussle for Power

Global history is one of continuous great-power struggles—whether Athens-Sparta, Persia-Greece, France-Britain, US-USSR, or US-China. This is a recurring theme of regional and global histories, and an essential fact of human civilization—where there will be at least two or more centers of power vying for dominance and supremacy over a contested territory (whether physical or otherwise). In this case, it would be prudent to understand one of the most fundamental geopolitical theories, one that specifically addresses the question of Great Power struggles—Thucydides’ Trap.

The theory was promulgated by a Greek historian, Thucydides, who began by narrating a history of the Peloponessian War, fought between the Great Powers of the region at the time, Athens and Sparta. Sparta was an already dominant land-based power, while Athens was a rapidly rising naval power, challenging Sparta’s influence in a series of conflicts and confrontations. 

In the study of this conflict, Thucydides made an insightful observation—of the fact that when a dominant power is challenged by a rising power, the result will be conflict and bloodshed (while not be taken too literally, the prediction of some sort of disruptive conflict nevertheless holds much water, manifesting itself in economic and other non-military forms in the 21^st Century). He offered two key reasons for this phenomenon, which is referred to as Thucydides’ Trap:

A)     The growing sense of entitlement and demand for a greater say and more importance by the rising power

B)      The insecurity of the dominant power and its determination to preserve the status-quo (Allison 2015)

Therefore, whenever a new power rises to challenge the dominance of the reigning one, only two possibilities follow: that there will either be a revision of the status quo or a strengthening of the same. However, whichever of the two does occur, as an implication of the theory discussed above, there will most likely be some form of conflict or destabilization that marks the conclusion of the ongoing struggle, with the victory of one power over the other, and/or the replacement of one power by another. This is evident in all the examples provided in the beginning of this article.

Tensions build up in a gradual manner in a situation of power struggle, and a sudden and often unexpected incident (World War II, Fall of Berlin Wall, Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo and such) lights the spark that causes the already volatile situation to explode, bringing down one or all parties involved, and bringing with it a period of general peace and calm. Again, to provide some examples:

1.      The defeat of Napoleon at Waterloo in 1815 led to the sudden demise of what was then the most formidable military power in Europe, and heralded an era of peace and stability, under the broader protection the four Great Powers of Europe—the UK, Prussia, Austria, and Russia. The Congress of Vienna was a landmark event, perhaps a precursor even to the League of Nations, ensuring peace through pacific settlement of disputes and multilateralism. This peace lasted for nearly a century, finally coming to an end with an escalation starting with the Crimean War (1853) and other such tensions, ultimately culminating in the First World War.

2.      The First World War led to the demise of three major empires—Germany’s Kaiserdom, The Habsburg Empire of Austria-Hungary, and the Romanov Dynasty’s Russian Empire (which would be replaced by the USSR). This brought in again, through mostly American and British contribution, a seemingly lasting peace, with the League of Nations (LoN) again enforcing the mandate of pacific settlement of disputes and multilateralism.

3.      Of course, as we all know, the LoN finally faded into insignificance, after an unexpected and cruel twist of fate, when Japan dramatically exited the League on being condemned for its actions in China.

The pre-WWII Japanese Empire in Asia (highlighted in Red)

4.      The collapse of the Berlin Wall was in fact the result of a communist official caught off-guard at a press conference. While a decision had been made by authorities to allow movement of people between East and West Germany, this was communicated to the official mere moments before the press conference. In a confused and flustered state, he simply conveyed that “people can cross”. This led to an uncontrolled euphoria amidst the separated Berlin population, along with much confusion in the communist establishment itself. No efforts were made to stop the people from crossing from East to West (in light of the announcement), and the desperate and ecstatic Berliners tore down the wall, marking a landmark moment in the Cold War, culminating with the Soviet disintegration in 1991.

Of course, this entire theory should not be considered in absolutist terms, as often it has been seen that Great Power Struggles are not an uninterrupted process, with long periods of stability in between, maintained through complex balance of power arrangements, which usually end up being disrupted by an aspirational revisionist power, seeking to drastically alter the status quo. An apt example of this would be of the Congress of Vienna that I mentioned earlier. An era of peace, maintained by an equitable and formal balance of power institutionalized by the Quadruple Alliance (the UK, Austria, Prussia, and Russia) and the Holy Alliance (Austria, Prussia, and Russia), finally was broken by the misadventurism of Napoleon III of France and the intricate scheming of Otto Von Bismarck, the Prussian statesman credited with the German Unification, and known for his ruthless modus operandi of cold, calculating Realpolitik and unrivalled diplomatic prowess. Both these individuals harbored a deep resentment for the Congress of Vienna system, for a multitude of reasons, and their actions finally led to the destabilization of the nearly fifty-year long peace that had reigned in Europe.

Drawing upon these observations, the following is a representation of the pattern discerned:

Understanding Thucydides’ Trap

And so, finally, it is this very Great Game and its modern-day manifestation that I seek to analyze, in the context of the present coronavirus pandemic, the question of how the two are intrinsically linked with each other, i.e., how COVID-19 is more than just a pandemic, but a geopolitical game-changer, and the legacy of 2008 in this context.

2008—The Beginning of the End

I would argue (and so would any observant analyst) that the US decline began with the 2008-09 financial crash, a historically disruptive event that haunts us even today. The Western World emerged significantly humiliated and damaged from this crisis, as severe mismanagement of financial and banking systems in the US drowned the American, European, and the Global economies into a recession, from which the West is yet to have recovered. Thousands of jobs were lost, millions (if not billions) of dollars lost, and the fragility of the post-Cold War US-led world order finally revealed. The barely two-decade long US hegemony, unchallenged then by the PRC and Russia, had come to an end, marking the beginning of a Great Power Struggle between the former and the latter two, most significantly China.

Interestingly, while the West was effectively crippled, the effects were not as severe in India and China. Both remained among the fastest growing economies in the world, and most economic health indicators soon enough returned to pre-2008 levels.

2008: Impact on China and its rapid rebound (Exports-Imports)

It became more or less evident of the true significance that India and China will hold in the near future, seeing their relative better post-crisis state than the otherwise idolized West. While these two have remained the fastest growing economies of the world, Europe collapsed into the Eurozone Debt crisis, with notable examples like that of Greece, which essentially went bankrupt.

COVID-19: Geopolitical Relevance

The ongoing pandemic has frozen almost all economic activity in nearly every country in the world, and institutions like the IMF have predicted the likelihood of a global economic recession, which, in terms of magnitude, may be unlike any other such crisis the world has ever seen, even rivalling the Great Depression and 2008.

As is very evident from the above statistics, given by the IMF, most of the developing world will be seeing very high negative growth, and while this will be temporary, this will cause a massive shock to the already fragile systems of the Western systems, which will prove hard to recover from. On the other hand, India and China will only be experiencing relatively slowed growth, and can expect a rapid recovery immediately after.

 This has serious implications for the balance of power. The center of power, which was already in a process shifting from West to East, will only be accentuated further and faster. This may be the big break the East needs to finally overtake the West. Ordinarily, India and China would have eventually overtaken US and Europe anyway, but after a decades-long process. However, with this event, one may expect to see such a phenomenon occur sooner rather than later. China is already on its way to get itself back onto its pre-COVID track, and this is evident from its relaxation of lockdowns, resumption of economic activity, and—in a rather unsettling move—its resumption of military encroachment of the South China Sea.

This last phenomenon demands great scrutiny, and already is under the scanner of a multitude of analysts and policymakers. With the South East Asian countries still reeling under the pressure of the Coronavirus, China has—as it always manages to—spotted a golden opportunity to further its expansionist agenda of ‘reclaiming’ the South China Sea. With the US Navy adversely affected by the virus, and the South-East Asian countries distracted, the Communist Party knows it will not get an opportunity such as this again, and has stepped up its naval operations in the region. This is a cause of great concern, for it may lead to an irreversible de facto occupation of the South China Sea by China, with Xi Jinping finding himself in control of the fate of a third of all of global shipping.

However, China’s gain of hard power will come at a price: it has irreversibly tarnished its reputation in this crisis. First by attempting to cover up the virus outbreak in December 2019 and early 2020, and then by sending hundreds of thousands of sub-standard quality kits to the rest of the world. This was aggravated by China’s opportunistic maneuvers in the South China Sea, and similar avaricious behaviour in the global financial market, wherein it took advantage of falling stock prices to initiate hostile takeovers. Allegations of China’s secret manipulation of the WHO do not make matters easier for China. So, while it may gain some economic and military points, its global reputation will take a hit, and considering the multipolarity of today’s world, this is an incredibly significant negative from China’s perspective, as that of an aspirant superpower.

Next, to the question of India. While India does not stand to gain much from the crisis in terms of economic or military opportunities, India will become a relatively more important economic power, given its relatively better projected growth as opposed to the negative growth of the West. Further, in terms of soft power and international prestige, India will be recognised as a pre-eminent and responsible power, essentially, more and more countries will feel comfortable seeing India in a position of power rather than the alternatives of US or China (I will cover the American issue further below). This is in view of India’s timely actions during this crisis, which have made it a globally admired state, whereas the US and China have effectively trashed their own standing as responsible states. India was forthcoming in exporting the much-needed medications abroad (like HCQ), owing to its strong domestic pharmaceutical base. Further, it has been transparent on its handling of the crisis, which has also been largely effective, with India being amongst the first countries to impose a lockdown, travel restrictions, and screening facilities in airports, among other measures.

Finally, onto the US question. The United States of America is the world’s largest economy, most powerful military, global superpower, and beacon of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. It is a model of hope, freedom, and democracy, and the bane of evil and oppression. All of these, were effectively consigned to the refuse bin by successive American presidents ever since the Cold War era, culminating in the most unprincipled and reckless of them all—Donald J. Trump. Thanks to this one undiscerning head of state, we may see a radical alteration of the world order, with the US experiencing a loss in global standing perhaps comparable to that of the UK after the Second World War and the 1953 Suez Crisis.

The US was already in the process of being shunned by its European allies, most notably visible in the recent fissures in NATO caused by Trump’s divisive politics, leading to leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel now looking to solve their Russia problems themselves, hoping to find a more reasonable negotiator in Putin (indicating just how very desperate they have been rendered).

But now, the US has shown its true colors to the world in its management (or lack) of the coronavirus crisis. First with a much-delayed lockdown, with America bustling, even as China, the Middle East, and Europe were in a state of chaos and panic. Now, while most of the world is ensuring that a lockdown remains in full force, with citizens all over (except in Pakistan perhaps) being fully compliant and adhering to self-quarantine and social-distancing measures, America is seeing nation-wide protests against the lockdown (predictably, most of them are led by the Republican vote-bank).

Even as America leads the world (as it always aspires to), though this time in infection numbers and death rate, a sizable number of its citizens want to go to their precious gyms and enjoy their constitutional rights to sunbathe on Californian beaches, in the midst of a deadly pandemic that, at the time of writing, has claimed over 240 thousand lives worldwide. And these people seek encouragement from where they will get it the most: from their most revered President, who recently recommended injecting disinfectant in humans for curing the virus.

Irresponsibility aside, let us look at an action of the US that should amount to a criminal offence—suspension of WHO funding. While humankind lies bruised and battered, with economies worldwide suffering from an acute lack of funds, the US decides that it doesn’t want to fund the one credible international organization responsible for coordinating the global response against the virus, an action akin to suspending defence expenditure in wartime. This move will cost lives, and is a clear indicator of the growing regression in the American polity, which, in the global context, is slipping further and further into an isolationist position, to a pre-First World War foreign policy. This will cost the US a substantial degree of its credibility, and it should face global accountability for this criminal action (even as hundreds of its terrorist acts go unaccounted for, whether in Central America, Guantanamo Bay, or the Middle East). Donald Trump, as far as the global community should be concerned, marks the last straw in terms of the growing incompetence and irresponsibility of the US as a global superpower, and must be shunned by the world at large.

Conclusion

India, if it remains vigilant and aware, should reap great benefits in terms of international goodwill and respect after this crisis boils over, and should economically also become a commanding power, with China being the only significant remaining competition (all this being in the long term rather than the immediate future). Where India of course has the advantage, is in its image, with the world feeling more comfortable dealing with India rather than China; for calling China’s actions in this crisis ‘shady,’ would be an understatement.

Meanwhile, the United States stands only to suffer from this crisis, simply because of a shameful lack of responsibility and actions amounting to criminal negligence and selfishness for which the world will have paid the price. The overall geopolitical consequences of this crisis I can draw are—

·       A growing power vacuum in Europe caused by America’s rapid retreat, which may well be filled by Russia and even China.

·       Growing significance of India’s global soft power and economic preponderance.

·       Growing Chinese hard power and global economic dominance, at the cost of international legitimacy.

·       A growing tussle between India and China over South and Central Asia to fill the vacuum caused by America’s decline, leading either to a drastic split between the two, or a peaceable settlement based on division of spheres of influence and multipolarity (the more likely of the two).

In any case, COVID-19 will now go down in history as the seminal event to mark end for US hegemony and the beginning of a new chapter in world history.

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References

Allison, Graham. 2015. The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? The Atlantic.

Willet, Thomas D. 2012. The Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on China's Financial Market and Macroeconomy. Hindawi.